NEWS RELEASE                                                                                        NOVEMBER 2016

Wild Swings in the NO_x Control Market

China is winding up an SCR retrofit program for coal-fired boilers which, in some recent years, generated SCR system purchases of over $7 billion. As a result of the disappearance of a big retrofit market, the investment in new SCR systems will hover at under $8 billion/yr. over the next few years. Coal-fired generators will still represent the largest purchasing segment followed by gas turbines.  The markets for NO_x control for reciprocating engine and industrial segments will be growing, but is relatively small by comparison.  The sales of catalyst have also been volatile due to the large initial need in the Chinese plants.  In fact, the peak in 2014 will not be surpassed until 2021. The one market showing steady increase is reagents.  The market for urea and ammonia will exceed $3 billion in 2017 and rise to over $3.4 billion in 2021.

There are some variables which need to be considered in making long-range forecasts:

• Catalytic filters could capture significant market share.  When catalyst is embedded in ceramic or fiberglass media both dust and NO_x can be reduced.  When a powdered sorbent is injected ahead of the catalytic filter, acid gases can also be captured. At the very least this development can change market approaches for catalyst suppliers. It is also likely to change market share.  Haldor Topsoe is a leader with a ceramic catalytic filter and collaborates with FLSmidth to provide the fiberglass embedded version.

• Expanding market for stationary reciprocating engine NO_x control. This growth could be accelerated by:

• Use of engine CO₂ to fertilize vegetables in commercial greenhouses.
• Distributed generation with emergency generators being used in standby service.  The greater use will necessitate NO_x control in most cases.

All these developments are continuously assessed and new forecasts issued in N035 NOx Control World Market