NEWS RELEASE                                                                                         March 2018

Large Replacement Market for Municipal Wastewater Combust, Flow and Treat Products

The market for combust, flow and treat (CFT) products for municipal wastewater treatment plants is growing faster than GDP and is larger than represented in many reports. Forecasts for purchases of each type of product by municipal wastewater plants is made possible by detailed analysis of the treatment flow rates and each specific variable impacting the market for a product.

The starting point to determine the market for CFT products is the installed treatment capacities.  The difference in installed capacity from one year to the next equals new builds less retirements. Pumps, valves, nozzles, blowers and similar components need to be replaced every 10-15 year.  So, unless the new build growth rate is higher than 6%/yr for a component replaced every 15 years or 10%/yr for components replaced every 10 years the replacement market will be larger than the new market. In a high growth country such as India the new build expenditure will be far greater than the replacement, but the total investment will still be small compared to a country such as the U.S. with 40,000 MGD of installed secondary treatment capacity.

It is possible to greatly improve the accuracy of market forecasts by obtaining accurate flow forecasts and then relating the investment for each component as a function of flow rate. The following segments need to be considered.  Incremental new systems, new systems which replace retired systems, replacement components, repair and service of existing components.

Over the life of the average pump, blower or high-performance valve the cost of repair will exceed the original cost. As a result, the largest markets for component suppliers are at existing plants in countries with a large installed base.

The movement to IIoT and Remote O&M adds the potential to expand the service and advisory opportunity and to negotiate yearly contracts which can be fixed price or on a partnership basis where the owner and supplier share the savings.

Since owners will be armed with total cost of ownership data due to IIoT and data analytics, the supplier will want to spend the time to prepare a total cost of ownership evaluation. If his is not the lowest then he will need to invest in R&D and be able to submit the Lowest Total Cost of Ownership Validation (LTCOV).

Millions of Gallons in Place as of 2018
Population Wastewater Treatment
  Served with WWTP Primary Secondary Secondary
Country  Total Urban Urban   Increase Capacity  Treatment Capacity
  (x 1,000) (x 1,000) (%) (x 1,000) (x 1,000) (MGD) (%) (MGD)
United States 332,745 310,470 0.995 308,918 6,696 43,888.6 94.00 41,255
Canada 36,551 32,300 0.970 31,331 594 3,381.8 79.00 2,672
Mexico 116,435 104,049 0.860 89,482 2,078 3,144.5 54.00 1,698
Argentina 43,508 43,508 0.480 20,884 187 1,029.3 31.00 319
Brazil 207,280 207,280 0.480 99,495 739 1,890.4 66.00 1,248
Chile 18,352 18,352 0.960 17,618 359 973.4 84.00 818
Colombia 50,504 44,235 0.790 34,946 1,022 399.1 40.00 160
Ecuador 15,471 12,570 0.610 7,668 244 108.8 23.00 25
Guatemala 17,372 11,892 0.420 4,995 278 30.7 28.00 9
Peru 32,244 26,049 0.690 17,974 491 300.7 43.00 129
Venezuela 32,443 32,443 0.620 20,114 295 179.7 41.00 74
Other South & Central America 94,736 71,810 0.480 34,469 1,057 1,121.7 41.00 460

It is highly desirable and possible to forecast the purchases for the few hundred enterprises which buy or influence the majority of the component purchases. BEWG operates more than 300 wastewater plants in China and other countries.  Suez operates half the wastewater plants in Chile and remotely monitors plants around the world from a remote center in France.  Many countries have privatized wastewater treatment plants.  This results in just a few hundred organizations with very large purchases.

2018 Municipal Wastewater Purchases

$ millions
 

World

 

 U.S.

Suez

 

Jacobs

CH2M

 

 BEWG Los Angeles Chicago MSD
Guide 5280 1100 106 63 60 11 22
Control 8640 1800 173 104 98 18 36
Measure 4320 900 86 52 50 9 18
Valves 4800 1000 96 58 52 10 20
Macrofiltration (belt presses, sand filters) 2400 500 48 29 28 5 10
Pumps 9600 2000 192 115 105 20 40
Treatment Chemicals 6720 1400 134 81 80 14 28
Sedimentation and Centrifugation 4320 900 86 52 80 9 18
Variable Speed Drives and Motors 4800 1000 96 58 48 10 20
Turbines, Fans, and Compressors 10560 2200 211 127 120 22 44
RO/UF/MF Cross Flow Membrane Systems 1200 250 24 14 45 3 6
Air Pollution Control 960 200 19 12 10 2 4

Forecasts for each component are compiled in McIlvaine multi-client or custom reports.  The Multi-client reports are shown under MARKETS.

Profiles of the largest operators along with activity at specific plants is included in Municipal Wastewater Treatment Plants and People.

The market for guide, control, measure and remote monitoring is included in IIoT and Remote O&M.