NEWS RELEASE                                                                                        October 2019

Effect of Interference on the Combust, Flow, and Treat Markets

The combust, flow, and treat (CFT) products and services markets will exceed $400 billion next year. The market has typically been segmented by McIlvaine on geographical end use. However, this analysis is based on where the profits are generated. India and Italy are major exporters of valves. Africa will enjoy a rapidly increasing market but China will be one of the main beneficiaries in terms of CFT products and services. It is building complete power plants and mines and, in many cases, taking part ownership of them.

The market in 2030 is likely to rise to just under $600 billion if there is a lack of government interference. However if there is interference in the markets the revenues could only rise to $535 billion.

Interference is a label which applies to tariffs, military destruction of refineries and greenhouse gas legislation as well as similar factors not experienced previously. The world has enjoyed a policy based on the principle that a rising tide floats all ships. Even though the U.S. and Europe are experiencing shrinkage in terms of percentage of world consumption within their borders they have managed to export or produce goods in Asian countries and take advantage of the growing prosperity in that region.

The U.S. and the U.K are embarked on policies which will reduce the total market and ultimately decrease their percentage share of a smaller pie. If the U.S. continues aggressive tariff implementation it might see a slight increase in CFT revenues next year but by 2030 it will encounter a smaller market and a smaller market share for its CFT companies.

The U.S. is in an enviable position due to hydraulic fracturing and its leading position as an oil and gas producer. However, China is aggressively pursuing fracturing and coal to syngas and liquids. It is also pursuing fracturing in the Middle East and Argentina. Sinopec is already the world’s largest CFT product consumer and a major supplier as well. By 2030 it is likely that low cost oil and gas will be produced by fracturing in several countries.

In a free environment the role of governments and even geography become secondary whereas the role of multinational corporations becomes paramount. This includes CFT purchasers such as Shell, BASF, Pfizer, and Arcelor Mittal. It includes suppliers such as GEA, GE, Xylem, Doosan, Shenhua Guodian and MHPS. The international suppliers can deal with the international purchasers. Since many international suppliers are in Europe and the U.S. these locations benefit from the free environment. Government imposed restrictions will reduce the market and role of these major companies and decrease the prosperity of the countries in which they are home based.

The actions to fight climate change are another variable. Under an extreme scenario CO2 reduction could be prioritized regardless of consequences. In a compromise plan such as proposed by McIlvaine there would not be a negative impact on the economy and the CFT market.

The interference variables need to be considered in all the CFT market forecasting. All the long range forecasts appearing in the specific McIlvaine market reports are updated continually to reflect these variables.   http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php/markets

Bob McIlvaine can answer your questions at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. direct 847 784 0013 cell 847 226 2391