NEWS RELEASE                                                                                        JULY 2012

$479 Billion Coal-fired Power Plant Investment Next Year 

Operators of coal-fired power plants around the world will spend $479 billion to upgrade 2.2 million MW of existing facilities and build 128,000 MW of new generators in 2013.  This compares to just $152 billion for nuclear generation and $105 billion for gas turbines. This is the latest forecast in Fossil and Nuclear Power Generation: World Analysis and Forecast published by the McIlvaine Company.

The U.S. will be making large investments in its coal-fired power plants, but unless policies change, these investments will not be wise.  Despite the prejudice against coal, it will be as important to U.S. energy needs in 2035 as it is now.  The policy to upgrade old power plants while prohibiting new power plants makes no sense.  Replacing these old inefficient power plants with ultra-supercriticals is the best way to achieve environmental goals while minimizing energy costs.

The most recent EIA forecast shows as much coal being utilized in 2035 as in 2010.

The use of coal will be reduced by some 15 percent in the short term according to the EIA base forecast and then recover to the 2010 levels.

The high short run cost of renewables will ensure the continuing use of coal for the next twenty-five years.  The twenty-one quads of coal presently fired emit pollutants with the equivalent harm of five billion tons of CO_2.  (McIlvaine has a common metric to rate the harm for each pollutant.)

If the U.S. were to follow the lead of Europe and replace all its old coal-fired power plants with new supercritical plants with the latest emission control equipment, the total harm could be reduced by 3.5 billion tons.  This is twice all the CO₂ emitted by the coal burning power plants. In other words, the reduction of SO₂, NO_x, mercury, particulate and CO₂ with new power plants will do much more than just upgrading old power plants. So the agreement should be along the lines of reducing total harm without regard for the mix between pollutants or the age of the plant.  A new coal-fired power plant program would be a cost free stimulus of $600 billion. The efficient new plants burning 30 percent less coal for the same output would generate electricity even with the depreciation at the same cost as upgraded old power plants but with much better environmental performance.

For more information on: Fossil & Nuclear Power Generation: World Analysis & Forecast, click on:  http://www.mcilvainecompany.com/brochures/energy.html#n043